Looking Through a Crystal Bottle

Back in medieval times, a change in the wine world every hundred years or so was considered turbulent. These days, though, it seems that everything we know about wine is changing, from the grapes used to make it and where they're grown, to who buys it and how we think about it. Understanding these changes can help us to make sense of the confusion caused by so many choices on wine store shelves. One of the biggest changes in the last five years is where and how grapes are grown.

The third edition of the Oxford Companion to Wine, edited by the venerable British writer Jancis Robinson, now lists more than 600 grape varieties in 72 countries. These include not just established countries such as France, Germany, Italy and the New World nations, but also new ones such as Ethiopia, Korea, Thailand, Vietnam and even Nepal. As well, traditional grapes, such as chardonnay and cabernet, are now being challenged by new ones as drinkers seek more varied taste experiences. According to the market research company ACNielsen, sales of pinot grigio (also called pinot gris) increased by 18.6 percent last year. Wine made from this white grape is predicted to surpass white zinfandel as the fourth-largest varietal (in terms of U.S. dollar sales) in just two years. That's remarkable considering the popularity of white zinfandel: 35 percent of U.S. wine consumers drink it, accounting for sales of twenty-one million cases in 2005.

Sales of the red wine, pinot noir, are also robust: they went up 52.4 percent in the same period, bumping red zinfandel from its number eight spot. No doubt this was helped by the phenomenal success of the movie Sideways, featuring a character Miles who's passionate about pinot—and who can't stand merlot. (The top three wines by dollar sales are chardonnay, merlot and cabernet sauvignon.)

The making of wine is also undergoing a sea change, with the help of modern technologies. The advent of temperature-controlled fermentation first allowed hot climates such as Australia and Chile to make wine that didn't taste cooked. Now computers often control far more of the winemaking process: probes buried in the vineyard soil monitor the moisture levels and determine when to irrigate. At the winery, computers measure the air in the barrel room and automatically mist it to maintain the desired 80 percent humidity. (Below that, and the wine starts evaporating from the barrels too quickly.)Some high-tech vineyards are even managed via Global Positioning Satellites. GPS technology was originally developed by the army to locate enemy troops and weaponry. Now some vintners use them to highlight plots where the vines are thriving, decide where to apply pesticides and assess where to irrigate.

Winemakers are also using new tools such as DNA Marking. In the past, they had to rely on a visual inspection to identify vine diseases, which often took years before they were visible to the human eye. Now DNA markers can flag infected plants within hours. And in the winery, the same techniques can also detect harmful yeasts and organisms much earlier, allowing the winemaker to combat them before the wine is ruined.

Another evolution is happening among wine buyers themselves. According to a 2005 study by U.S.-based Constellation Wines, one of the largest wine conglomerates in the world, buyers of wine worth $5 or more tend to fall into six distinct categories. They describe these as "satisfied sippers," "enthusiasts," "image seekers," "savvy shoppers," "traditionalists" and "overwhelmed." The enthusiasts, for example, are "passionate about the entire wine experience from researching what they buy to sharing their discoveries with friends and family." But the largest group (23 percent, comprising mostly women), are the overwhelmed. They say shopping for wine is complex and stressful, and they worry about making mistakes. They rely heavily on shelf slip tasting notes and staff suggestions. By far, the most compelling trend is that buyers are expected to dramatically increase their consumption in the next ten years. According to research by the International Wine and Spirit Record (IWSR), world wine sales are expected to rise by 62.5 percent.

In fact, wine now surpasses beer as the alcoholic drink that American adults consume most often.That shows there have been profound changes since 1992, when a Gallup poll found that 47 percent of drinkers preferred beer to only 27 percent who drank wine most often. But a similar poll in 2005 found that the gap had almost vanished: the numbers were 39 percent for wine and 36 percent for beer. And IWSR predicts that by 2009, America will become the largest wine consuming country in the world, as France falls from first spot to third and Italy remains in second place. This trend is helped along by a number of factors, ranging from increased awareness of the health benefits from moderate wine drinking to an increase in the number of people taking wine courses and traveling to wine regions. In fact, wine tourism (closely tied to culinary tourism in general) is one of the fastest growing segments of the travel industry. This makes sense: wine regions are often among some of the most beautiful places on the planet. Such travel is a win-win proposition, both for the travelers themselves and for the host countries. Wine lovers add education to relaxation as a benefit of their vacations; and the regions get more tourism dollars, support for their wine industry and a broader awareness of small producers. But even with all these changes taking place in the industry, it's reassuring that the most important factor about wine hasn't changed in thousands of years: the pleasure of drinking it.

Seven More Wine Predictions 2006
1. The wine industry will continue to consolidate, as large corporations buy up smaller wineries. 2. Critter labels, those with animals on them, such as Yellow Tail, Little Penguin and others, will increase in popularity.
3. More bottles will be sealed with screwcaps (thankfully), reducing the incidence of corked wine.
4. Big reds, such as Australian shiraz, will continue to dominate. (But look for Argentinian malbec is starting to make inroads.)
5. Wine web sites and blogs will proliferate, since wine is an information-intensive purchase.
6. Cross-border shopping will get easier, though not all the legal barriers will come down.
7. Wine writers will become the new best-selling authors, replacing crime and romance novelists. (Oops, that's not a prediction, just wishful thinking.)

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